In the last issue of On Target, I looked at the impact to the management accounting professions of 3D Printing; Maglev; Fuel Cells; Hydroponics and Robotic Vehicles; all technologies that are already with us, and only a few years away from commercialisation. In this issue, I will cover the new technologies that are expected to be commercialised in the next 10-20 years. This is based on the research I have undertaken for my next editorial in the Journal of Applied Management Accounting Research (JAMAR).
Biological Therapy: Also called vaccine therapy, biotherapy or biological response modifier therapy is an approach that literally reprograms the human immune system to fight disease and its symptoms. It does this with substances made by the body itself, rather than drugs. Today it’s being used as a cancer treatment, but in the future, it could be used as a treatment for other diseases. It is possible that someday biological therapies that could counteract or even reverse some of the symptoms of aging could be developed. The management accountant must be aware that such biological response modifier therapies have the potential to significantly increase life expectancies. Recently, the Australian government stated that it needs to reconsider the cost structures of government subsidies for its Medicare benefits scheme as Australians were expected to live to an age of 150 years. This increased life expectancy will also affect retirement ages, and services provided after retirement. If compulsory retirement (as in some countries) is 60 or 65 years; then one can look forward to 85 to 90 years of retirement! The management accountant should consider the impact of this in terms of productivity; the work-life balance; youth unemployment and what individuals can do with all that leisure time.
Wireless Electricity: We are all familiar with the wireless internet in which you can access the web through radio signals. Wireless electricity takes this one-step further by where electronic devices literally pull power out of the air. Instead of extension cords, you would have an electric hotspot that would provide power to your gadgets. In the future, phones could draw power from the cell phone network in the way they draw signals today. Long-term electric cars could draw power from transmitters by the road. Or electricity could be transmitted like microwave signals are today, eliminating the need for an expensive power grid. If this technology is perfected, management accountants in power companies must rethink their pricing strategies. Like in the case of the internet, in which subscribers pay a monthly rental to download a certain amount of data; electricity will be delivered to customers wherever they are by subscription. They should also be aware of potential class actions if such electricity generation is found to be a health hazard. Even non-subscribers may sue the Power Company for ‘passive’ wireless electricity risks; much like the tobacco industry faced with passive smokers.
Hot Fusion: This basically attempts to recreate the process that the sun uses to generate heat and light. Hot fusion would generate vast amounts of heat and could be used to run steam turbines to generate electricity. It could also be used for waste disposal, particularly the burning of hazardous waste. If it works, hot fusion could make electricity production cheaper, and it would apparently be safer than traditional nuclear reactors. If this technology becomes accepted and widespread, the management accountant must be aware of the significant changes it will have in an organisation’s life-cycle costing (LCC) models, especially in the area of solid waste disposal. The energy obtained by burning waste, can significantly reduce both energy cost structures and yield-loss recovery. If hot fusion can be undertaken with very little green-house gases being emanated this technology also has the potential to impact Climate Change legislation.
Meat without livestock: This game-changing idea is so new and radical, that it does not even have a proper name yet. Terms used for it include “carnaculture,” “cultured meat” and “in-vitro meat.” The idea is a simple one, grow meat in a tank or vat the way yeast is grown. Any commercial application of this process is years away because scientists have not figured out how to produce something that looks like meat. Yet there could be some real benefits from in-vitro meat if it could be perfected.
It could help reduce the greenhouse effect because cattle are a major generator of greenhouse gases. It would also end the damage livestock grazing does to the land and eliminate the vast amounts of pollution created by big cattle and chicken farming. Another benefit is that cultured fish could provide protein and prevent the overfishing of the oceans. A final benefit would be that the vast amounts of grain now fed to livestock could be used for food for the poor or as the ingredients for biofuels. It would also end the practice of slaughtering animals for meat, which many people find inhumane. There are religious implications as well. If cultured meat is not the same as real meat, can Jews and Muslims eat cultured pork and Hindu’s eat cultured beef?
As one can see, this technology is a real game changer. The management accountants in industries as wide ranging as widespread as livestock; grain; fishing; transportation; hospitality and travel will need to re-think their business models. For example, McDonalds needs approximately 65,000 heads of cattle to be slaughtered per day to feed its customers their daily intake of beef burgers. As cattle take between 12 to 24 months to mature for slaughter (depending on the amount of grain added to their feed), there needs to be a stock of approximately 45 million heads of cattle being fed daily just to meet McDonalds’ beef burger demand. All of these cows are emitting large quantities of methane which has about 25 times the potency for global warming as carbon dioxide. This means that as there will be a significant reduction in green-house gas emissions when this carnaculture technology is perfected; and as such this technology also has the potential to impact Climate Change legislation.
In Summary, 10-20 years into the future may see life expectancies increase to 150 years via the advances in biological response modifier therapies. This will cause significant and dramatic changes in the work place. This technology too is already with us, as is wireless electricity, in which you can get access to power the same as a telephone call. Converting solid waste into electricity is already happening in a small scale, but if the technology is perfected via hot fusion, it will have an enormous impact on the waste-management and recycling costs in industries. Finally, the biggest game changer that will affect many facets of our life will be cultured meat, i.e. meat without livestock; which will not only have a major impact on many industries but also on our religious belief systems. Management accountants may feel that it is not that important to look that far into the future, but these changes could be with us in the next 25 years. As a profession that prides itself as dwelling in the future – as against financial accountants that score keep the past – it needs however, to be aware of the dramatic changes to business models that these technologies will bring.
Regards,
Professor Janek Ratnatunga, CMA, IMAP
CEO, ICMA Australia
